Articles

30,000 More Students Expected In 5 Years

D. Aileen Dodd, AJC Staff
February 4, 2004

A five-year population forecast predicts more of the same for Gwinnett County schools -- explosive growth and crowded campuses packed with trailers.

In five years, school enrollment will swell to 157,734. That's about 30,000 more students on the rosters than are currently enrolled.

Gwinnett County schools' fastest-growing neighborhoods -- Dacula, North Gwinnett, Grayson and South Gwinnett -- will continue to see some of the largest gains, according to the forecast.

"We still have development going on in all of these areas," said Greg Stanfield, Gwinnett's planning director.

"The larger development tends to happen where there are larger tracts of land available, which are in the northeastern and southeastern portions of the county."

Next school year, a 15th cluster of neighborhood schools called Mill Creek will be added, with 9,600 students in eight schools -- including three new schools -- to relieve crowding in the Dacula and North Gwinnett clusters. While Dacula Middle School soon will see some relief, Collins Hill High School will not. It will remain over capacity for the next five years.

When the doors open at Collins Hill in August, the school will have an estimated enrollment of 3,576, more than 500 students over capacity. The school's enrollment is expected to peak at 3,819 students in 2006-07.

Slower-growth areas such as the Shiloh and Parkview neighborhood school clusters will see enrollments begin to taper off in coming years. By 2008-09, the Shiloh, Brookwood, Duluth, Meadowcreek and Parkview clusters will be under capacity.

The entire school system also is slated to begin a period of slower annual growth starting in two years. By 2012, though the growth rate will be smaller, the population won't. There will be more than 175,000 students.

Stanfield said his staff computes the five-year school enrollment projections using a mathematical formula that considers growth trends and future development.

"We base it on history and the development that we currently have in the cluster," he said. "We also take a look at what possibilities are available in the zone and come up with a growth rate."

Added Gwinnett spokeswoman Sloan Roach: "These numbers are a planning tool. ... It gives us an idea as we look at future budget, staff and building program [needs]."

The figures apparently already are having some impact on future construction.

Gwinnett schools Superintendent J. Alvin Wilbanks announced Monday that school officials are considering adding five clusters of neighborhood schools -- Harbins Area, North Mill Creek Area, East North Gwinnett, East Berkmar-Central and Southwest Mill Creek -- to Gwinnett's impressive list of property holdings.

From 30 to 35 new schools will be needed by 2007-12, Wilbanks has said.

"If you aren't in the land market today, it is subject to be bought up. ... Gwinnett County is growing."

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